ARCHIVE

Moderation the way forward for China

CHINA may have had a soft landing, but we should not expect more of the growth we've seen from th...

Kristie Batten

This article is 12 years old. Images might not display.

Van der Wath told Investing in African Mining Indaba that people were “less panicky” about the dire financial state of Europe.

“The world is more comfortable with Europe,” he said.

“It takes off the shadow that hung over Asia a year ago.”

It also helped ease the fears over a slowdown in China.

“Our concerns about China that existed last year are no longer there,” van der Wath said.

“It did manage to have a soft landing last year.”

He said growth was accelerating again, but warned not to expect this to return to the rates seen in the past few years.

“Don’t expect growth of 9, 10 per cent and beyond any time soon – those days are gone,” he said.

Van der Wath forecast 8.2% growth for China in 2013, but that would fall to as low as 3-5% as it looked to moderate growth.

He said there was already a shift from export-driven growth to a consumption and services economy.

“It certainly doesn’t spell the end for resources demand,” van der Wath said.

Despite the drop in the Chinese growth rate, van der Wath said the country would still continue to get stronger on a global scale.

“Don’t think that lower growth means no growth,” he said.

China accounts for about 10% of global gross domestic product at the moment, but that should grow to about 15% in the next few years.

As a region the Asia Pacific would outperform the developed world, accounting for a third of global GDP by 2015, he said.

As for Chinese investment, van der Wath expects China to continue to be active in Africa and Australia.

However, he said the strategy would change.

“It’s not just about winning the capex race,” van der Wath said.

He said we could expect to see China being more involved on the marketing and supply chain side of things in the future.

TOPICS:

Expert-led Insights reports built on robust data, rigorous analysis and expert commentary covering mining Exploration, Future Fleets, Automation and Digitalisation, and ESG.

Expert-led Insights reports built on robust data, rigorous analysis and expert commentary covering mining Exploration, Future Fleets, Automation and Digitalisation, and ESG.

editions

Automation and Digitalisation Insights 2025

Discover how mining companies and investors are adopting, deploying and evaluating new technologies.

editions

Mining IQ Exploration Insights 2025

Gain exclusive insights into the world of exploration in a comprehensive review of the top trending technologies, intercepts, discoveries and more.

editions

Future Fleets Insights 2025

Mining IQ Future Fleets Insights 2025 looks at how companies are using alternative energy sources to cut greenhouse gas emmissions

editions

Automation and Digitalisation Insights 2024

Exclusive research for Mining IQ Automation and Digitalisation Insights 2024 shows mining companies are embracing cutting-edge tech