The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association commissioned Deloitte Access Economics to look at the economic impacts of the resources boom.

Professor Ian Harper undertook several analyses, changing variables ranging from the most likely scenario of oil and gas projects going through to fruition and what could happen if all of the existing and mooted projects came to pass.

He is presenting his findings at yesterday’s University of Western Australia-APPEA seminar, The Economics Of Oil And Gas In Western Australia – Benefits To The State.

He told ILN sister publication Energy News prior to the event that while the investment boom might be coming to an end, there would be a massive operational expenditure boom to follow.

It is during this boom, Harper said, that the export benefits from all of these oil and gas projects that are being built, or are on the books to be built, will start exporting.

The money that will flow from that will help boost economic growth right across the country – not just in the states where the construction works are taking place.

Should all the projects come to pass Australia is looking at a capital expenditure approaching $80 billion, peaking around 2014-15 and tailing away to nothing in 2018-19.

Should only the existing projects under construction and those considered most likely to proceed go ahead, that capex tops out at about $40 billion in 2016-17 and also tails away in 2018-19.

From 2018-19, though, those projects should be in operation and that is where the benefit to Australia will come.

The benefits from those plants coming online will run through to 2035 and beyond with exports worth $50 billion or more.

It is in that operational phase that Harper believes is when the eastern states will start to catch up with WA, which will have been enjoying the lion’s share of the boom.

So how would Australia best capitalise on this economic boon?

After all, productivity has been falling across the board during the construction phase. A fair part of that is due to high wage costs caused by the shortage of skilled workers and Australia’s high exchange rate though.

The worker shortage will likely ease as the construction phase draws to an end.

Harper said the manufacturing states had to make sure they were operating as efficiently as possible to ensure they were not drawing resources away from the oil and gas opportunities.

Given the amount of oil and, particularly, gas that will be available when these plants are in operation, should some not be kept aside to provide cheap energy for manufacturing?

That is what is happening in the US with thanks to the cheap energy coming from the shale boom there after all.

Harper said low energy costs would be damaging to Australia.

He said the country would get its best results from exporting its gas rather than trying to use it for manufacturing.