“This compares to the 2013 report’s forecast of 2.3% for the five years through 2018 and the actual growth rate of 3.3% per year between 2010 and 2013,” IEA said.

Overall, it expects that China will be joined by India and southeast Asian nations to help drive coal consumption growth while declines are experienced in Europe and the US.

Yet the IEA’s figures from its recently released Medium-Term Coal Market Report also remain at the mercy of China.

“As has been the case for more than a decade, the fate of the global coal market will be determined by China,” the agency said.

“The world’s biggest coal user, producer and importer has embarked on a campaign to diversify its energy supply and reduce its energy intensity, and the resulting increase in gas, nuclear and renewables will be staggering.

“However, the IEA report shows that despite these efforts, and under normal macroeconomic circumstances, Chinese coal consumption will not peak during the five-year outlook period.”

IEA listed other uncertainties too:

“Authorities in China as well as in key markets like Indonesia, Korea, Germany and India, have announced policy changes that could sharply affect coal market fundamentals. The possibility of these policy changes becoming reality is compounding uncertainty resulting from the current economic climate.”