The report concedes that increasing investment by independent oil companies in UK offshore fields may see a slight increase in production to 1.75 million barrels per day by 2017 but DW expects that the required high levels of expenditure will not last in the long term due to field maturity.

The costliness of operations further fuels DW’s bleak outlook, with industry changes seen as the way out.

“DW expects a resumption of decline towards the end of the decade,” the analyst said.

“Hope for any long-term growth rests with much-needed reform of the UK’s offshore regulator, which must swiftly adapt to the shift towards production from smaller fields.”

Looking across the North Sea to Norway, DW is slightly more encouraged, noting state-owned giant Statoil’s large Johan Sverdrup and Goliat projects, which are due for start-up in the next few years, contributing to a sustained well completion rate beyond 2020.

“Along with the start of projects in the large Johan Sverdrup and Goliat fields, this will see the number of well completions sustained at around 200 a year beyond 2020,” DW said.

“DW expects these projects will see Norway break from the mould of other mature western European producers and sustain production into the next decade.

“It must be noted, however, that both of these fields are currently subject to delay.

“Johan Sverdrup is facing electrification issues whilst ENI’s Goliat floating production, storage and offloading vessel is still to be completed and may take millions of man-hours more.”