While Morgan Stanley analysts believe premium hard coking coal may have bottomed at the $US120/t level, which was struck for the June and September quarters between Anglo American and Nippon Steel, Goldman Sachs is not foreseeing much growth potential.

“A recovery back to our $140/t marginal production cost is now unlikely before 2016,” the investment bank said of June mark-to-market commodity adjustments.

Goldman Sachs estimated the commodity to average $133/t in 2015, $140/t in 2016 and $145/t in 2017.

Macquarie Private Wealth’s China steel sector survey this month was more encouraging.

“Some signs are emerging that iron ore and coking coal destocking are coming to an end,” MPW said of its findings.

“Mills are reporting a stabilisation of iron ore inventory and coking coal inventory is not falling as quickly as a month ago.

“For both raw materials, mills are indicating a small increase in purchasing intentions, although so far the responses remain somewhat muted.”