Chicago-based David Hale is the former chief economist for the Zurich Financial Services Group and the founder of Hale Advisors.

Visiting Australia last week, Hale delivered a series of presentations to the Commonwealth Bank’s trade finance clients.

Hale said despite China’s continuing growth – expected to remain at around 8% next year – the expected recessions in the United States and Europe would impact on exports.

Meanwhile, India has been affected by rising inflation, but Hale said a growth rate of 7% is still expected in 2009.

Hale said that while Australia has an “underlying soundness” and stable consumption, the risk was in volatile commodity prices.

“Australia has record prices for iron ore and coal but there is likely to be a weakness next year in export demand,” Hale said.

“For Australia there will be moderation and a subdued environment, but not a hard landing.”

Hale said that Australia would experience 2% growth next year.

“There is a great deal at stake, but we are past the worst,” he said.

“The reduction in the spread in London’s interbank market in recent times is a clear sign that globally, the financial system is improving.”

Commonwealth Bank executive manager of trade and working capital finance, Michael Reidy, said that while there may be a slowdown, it was not all bad news.

“China is Australia’s largest trading partner and while we are expecting more moderate growth in their economy, they will still require Australian exports,” he said.