“We believe that the recent price relationship between oil and thermal coal is based more on sentiment than on any fundamental economic relationship,” the Macquarie analysts noted in their report.

“The activity of speculative players in both markets can make a relationship like this self-fulfilling for periods – until the fundamentals of one market differ enough from the other to cause the relationship to break down, often unexpectedly.”

Although Macquarie noted that coal and oil markets are effectively linked in Europe through gas pricing, the analysts said it was generally a secondary factor in the thermal market.

Looking at data since World War II, Macquarie said the correlation between oil prices and thermal coal prices was inexact, at best.

“Where coal is following oil, it is likely because there are few independent price signals in the thermal coal market,” analysts said.

“Should stronger coal-market price signals emerge, the relationship between coal and oil may break down very rapidly.”

Adding that the thermal coal price should not be driven over any prolonged period by the oil price, Macquarie did make a concession.

“Even so, given recent trends, there is likely to be a lot of coal producers keeping a close eye on the OPEC meeting on December 17 in Algeria,” Macquarie analysts said.