With the latest November oil import data out, it appears China will most likely miss the forecasts by both the International Energy Agency as well as its own figures from the China National Petroleum Corp.

Implied crude demand fell a little over 5% to around 9.94 million barrels per day in November compared with the same time last year, although it was 1.5% higher than the previous month.

The implied demand year-to-date until November also was up a modest 2.1% to 9.76 million barrels of oil per day, compared with same period last year.

Interestingly, the import figures are significantly lower than the IEA’s forecast in its monthly report for total demand pegged at 10.19 million bopd this year.

While the IEA figures are notorious for retroactive revisions, the Chinese oil demand for the year looks set to miss forecasts by its own oil producer CNPC, which estimated a 10.28 million bopd demand for 2013.

What is more alarming is that the lag in implied demand has also been complemented by declining stockpiles, especially of oil products, which declined more than 6% in October.

Analysts point out that even if the December imports do catch up, it will not be sufficient to bring the total yearly average demand to above 10 million bopd. As a result, the yearly average is likely to be around 400,000 bopd and 480,000 bopd below IEA and CNPC forecasts respectively.

If the average yearly implied demand does register just under 10 million bopd this year, it would be only slightly higher than the 9.66 million bopd reached last year, which had the slowest growth rate in oil demand in four years.

What the below forecast oil demand also signifies is that going forward into the new year, forecasts are likely to get revised and IEA’s demand figures for 2014 at 10.57 million bopd might be revised lower.

The latest oil import data is yet another economic indicator coming from China, which has been sending mixed messages. It comes close on the heels of other figures from the commodity sectors, which have also shown contraction, casting doubt over the overall economic outlook for the country.

China’s steel demand is expected to remain weak, while the Chinese government has also ordered the closure of about 1400 companies in 19 sectors to reduce overcapacity. However, such move also poses the danger of reducing energy demand.

Indeed energy demand is likely to dwindle as China tries to balance economic growth by increasing consumer spending amid falling investment.

Analysts say that if China’s economic growth does falter and falls to sub 5%, it could result in oil prices slumping to around $US70 a barrel, and roil the oil market.