Reports suggest more than 1000 people attended a Sunday rally against coal mining and coal seam gas exploration in Sydney’s Martin Place, which included federal independent MP Rob Oakeshott.

Premier Kristina Keneally, who approved the expansion of the Metropolitan longwall mine when she was planning minister in 2009, has also appeared more resistant as her government makes a late push against further coal mine development.

One clear sign was the recent rejection of the Wallarah 2 longwall project despite the Planning Assessment Commission’s findings that the risks were manageable, while the Keneally government’s 10-point coal and gas plan threatens to create more roadblocks.

The Coalition, which is expected to be elected to government, could advance some points of this plan, especially in relation to coal mining exclusion zones which have appeal for voters in the agricultural and horse breeding industries.

In a study commissioned by the New South Wales Minerals Council, ACIL surveyed 10 coal companies in the state and conducted quantitative analysis.

The study centred on three possible policy scenario approaches by the state government for the mining industry up to 2030, including a growth scenario favourable to mining activity, a business-as-usual approach and a restrictive policies scenario.

The restrictive policies scenario assumed that Part 3A of the Environmental Planning and Assessment Act would be removed from July 1, 2011, causing widespread delays for new mines and expansions for at least two years.

This worst-case scenario also assumed that the state government would not award or renew tenements, or approve work program extensions for two years.

Coal projects already subject to “unusually strong” opposition were also assumed to be deferred indefinitely.

Under this scenario, ACIL estimated that the average annual employment in the state would be 6271 full-time equivalent jobs lower than the “business as usual” policy settings up to 2030, while NSW mining industry payments to Australian governments would be $921 million lower each year.

The restrictive policies scenario, especially the delays under changes to the environmental assessment regulations, were forecast to cause a loss of 60 million tonnes per annum of production by the 2014-15 financial year, equating to a $15 million per annum fall in income.

From its research ACIL observed that it was difficult for the coal industry to recover production levels once planning-related delays occurred.

“An important finding from the survey was the almost immediate impact on production of coal that would arise with any delay in licence approvals,” the consultancy said.

“This occurs because producers, particularly coal producers, are continuously applying for licences to produce from new areas in existing tenements.”

The state Coalition has promised to scrap Part 3A and overhaul the planning system after recommendations are made by an independent expert panel.

Its aim is to enact new planning legislation around the middle of its first term of government.

While the Coalition intends to include a reserve power for “genuinely state-significant developments”, it also aims to return planning powers to local communities.

“We believe that local residents – through councils – are best placed to make local planning decisions affecting their suburbs,” the NSW Liberal party stated on its website.

“After all, it is local residents – not Macquarie Street planners – who have to live with the results of these planning decisions.”