In a commodities report last week, Goldman noted a globalCOAL report on January 5 of a spot physical thermal coal deal of 25,000t for March delivery at $US95 per tonne, $15/t above the pre-Christmas price.
Consequently the broker raised its forecast of spot Newcastle thermal coal prices to $88/t for this quarter, while it expects the next benchmark price for the new Japanese financial year to reach $85/t in April.
The new benchmark forecast is 18-20% higher than the $US70-72 range of fixed annual thermal coal contracts inked last year with Japanese power companies.
For this calendar year Goldman expects spot thermal coal prices to average at $86/t on expectations of “persistently high Chinese domestic prices and constraints on Australian export availability due to congestion at Newcastle and strong export demand for semi-soft coal”
Goldman also noted that China remained a “huge wildcard” when analysing global trade and it was maintaining a cautious view on Chinese imports of thermal coal in 2010.
