CITIC Resources and steelmakers ArcelorMittal and POSCO collectively own 47.4% of Macarthur.

Mine Life senior resources analyst Gavin Wendt previously said the steelmakers were more interested in the security of metallurgical coal supply than profits from Macarthur shares.

Macarthur’s board must meet yet again to look at another offer, but is likely to reject the late bid.

Peabody might have switched its strategy by saying Macarthur’s key stakeholders can retain their economic interest in the producer, but its offer will lapse if Macarthur’s shareholder vote on the merger with Gloucester Coal takes place on Monday.

Commodities trader Noble Group, which owns 87.8% of Gloucester, released a statement goading the Macarthur board to go ahead with the shareholder vote.

“Just have the vote, see what happens, and then everyone can get on with their lives,” Noble said.

“As we have said, even with all the smoke and noise, we remain very, very confident about how things will turn out.”

Noble could take almost a quarter of Macarthur under the scrip-based elements of the transaction, should it be approved.

While Peabody’s new bid values Macarthur at $4.1 billion, New Hope has recently revised its offer to include a cash option of $14.50 a share, providing the Gloucester transaction does not go ahead.

Major coal player Xstrata is yet to reveal its hand but Macarthur has already disclosed that the Swiss mining major has approached one of its major stakeholders.

Goldman Sachs JBWere views that Xstrata is waiting to see how the vote will go on Monday.

“A vote against the Noble deal avoids legal issues on comparing the various offers for the Macarthur board,” Goldman said in a trading report two days ago, citing “street talk”.

If its takeover of Gloucester proceeds, Macarthur will control not only its operating Coppabella and Moorvale mines in Queensland’s Bowen Basin but also Gloucester’s Stratford and Duralie mines in the Gloucester Basin of New South Wales.

Macarthur also seeks to gain Noble’s stake in the Middlemount Coal joint venture under the Gloucester offer, with the Queensland company intending to kick off the stage 2 expansion of the mine in mid-2011.

Production capacity at the coking and pulverised coal injection coal mine is expected to double to 3.6 million tonnes per annum for the first year before reaching 5.4Mtpa for the next 19 years.

Macarthur’s run-of-mine production reached 5.79Mt in 2009, while Gloucester’s total ROM production was 1.51Mt.

Back in January, Macquarie Research analysts forecast Noble would eventually launch a full takeover play for Macarthur.

Macarthur shares are in a halt and closed at $15.28 yesterday.