AME said the outlook for hard coking coal and low volatile coal for use in pulverized coal injection (PCI) was bullish through to 2006. It said demand for internationally traded coking coal will be driven by strong global growth in pig iron production, and China’s transition to a net importer of hard coking coal.

“AME predicts that internationally traded metallurgical coal demand will continue to grow strongly to around 245 million tonnes by 2010.”

Brazil, India and China are expected to be the leaders in a large jump in metallurgical coal consumption.

“India, the world’s third largest metallurgical coal importer in 2004, will challenge South Korea for the importer silver medal by 2006, as a wide range of steelmaking capacity expansions and a surge in coke battery construction kick in,” AME said.

“By 2007, Indian imports are anticipated to be more than 50% above their level in 2003, while Brazilian imports are expected to grow by more than 5Mtpy. China’s net exports of metallurgical coal, which totalled about 10.5Mt in 2003, are on a downward trend.”

AME was also positive on its thermal coal outlook, predicting international thermal prices would again rise in 2005 from the record highs of 2004.

“Export giant Australia has lost market share to Indonesia and China in the Asia-Pacific market, while major growth is forecast for Colombia in the Atlantic basin as South African suppliers struggle to maintain competitiveness,” AME said.