INTERNATIONAL COAL NEWS

Hot and dry the order of the times: forecasters

SOUTHERN Australia has had a searing end to 2012, while the UK Met Office is noting

Richard Collins

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Broome recorded its hottest December on record, with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) confirming daily maximum temperatures averaged 36.3 degrees C, about 2.5 degrees above average. It received about half the normal rainfall, though BoM is forecasting increasing monsoonal activity across northern Australia.

Adelaide's December was the driest month since January 2009, Melbourne received half its December average and Brisbane the lowest December rain in 12 years. The conditions are expected to continue for much of this month.

Weatherzone notes Perth has already recorded a record heat wave, averaging a daily maximum temperature of 39 degrees over the last week of the year. It also had its driest December in three years.

BoM notes the tropical Pacific Ocean, a key weather determinant for eastern Australia, remains neutral in El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO).

"Climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the tropical Pacific is likely to remain ENSO neutral through the southern hemisphere summer. This means that in contrast to the two prior summers, Australian rainfall and temperatures are unlikely to be strongly influenced by ENSO," it said.

Global forecast

BoM's UK counterpart, the Met Office, has released its annual global temperature forecast, with 2013 expected to be between 0.43 degrees and 0.71 degrees warmer than the long-term (1961-1990) global average of 14 degrees. Its best estimate is for a 0.57 degree anomaly on the plus side.

"Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast and observations, it is very likely that 2013 will be one of the warmest 10 years in the record which goes back to 1850, and it is likely to be warmer than 2012," it said.

The prediction follows provisional figures for the actual (observed) temperature in 2012, published by the Met Office and University of East Anglia last month. The provisional numbers show last year as the 9th warmest on record, with a most likely value of 0.48 °C above the long term average, but not as warm as the record year of 2010.

This article first appeared in BEN Global.

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