While a lower Aussie dollar was “great”, Chris Richardson, the author of a new report by Deloitte, warned that recent oil price falls were a big blow to the state’s prospects in gas, and drought was similarly sapping some of the good news from the short-term outlook.

“No wonder the state’s population growth has dropped below Australia’s for the first time in many decades,” he said.

Commenting more broadly on the national picture, Richardson said falling energy and industrial commodity prices were good news for manufacturers, transport and tourism operators, as well as the utilities, but bad news for miners and for that part of construction tied to resource projects, as well as for the public sector, which was relying on commodity prices to underpin rising tax revenues.

“On the other hand the fall in the Australian dollar is good news for all those sectors – thereby generating some partly offsetting good news for miners and engineering construction, and underwriting even better news for manufacturers, transport and tourism operators, and farmers,” he said.

“Yet that same fall in the Australian dollar is a problem for retailers, as it makes the cost of inputs higher at a time when their customers’ purchasing power is growing slowly.”

Deloitte also questioned the benefits of the Northern Territory’s Inpex Ichthys LNG project, will have on its economy going forward, in light of the recent fall in oil and gas prices.

The NT government used a Deloitte report predicting economic growth to be driven by exports as the construction phase of Ichthys winds down to highlight the critical importance of private investment funding its port expansion.

However, Deloitte also warned that the pace at which oil and oil-related prices – including gas prices – were slashed in recent months raises some serious question marks about the ability of the economic supercharger for the NT, its project pipeline, to maintain its current levels of activity.

Richardson said that while the drop in oil and gas prices “has flow on implications for all energy commodities, thereby cutting the chance that new gas projects [let alone coal ones] get the go-ahead any time soon”, he was relatively bullish on the NT.

“That puts yet another banana skin under prospects for the resources belt, whose forecasts we continue to cut,” Richardson said, referring to the oil and gas price drop.

“Even so, there’s a lot of exports still coming on stream, meaning Western Australia, Queensland and the Top End still look good on output growth in the next couple of years.”

NT Chief Minister Adam Giles said the Deloitte finding “underscores the importance of finding a new management model for our port including private investment that can fund the kind of expansion that Deloitte Access Economics are predicting”

Legislation is currently before the NT’s parliament to allow for the possible long term lease of the port to an expert operator in this field.

“The port needs to grow to meet the Territory's needs, driving improved economies of scale and efficiencies that will down freight costs and the cost of living,” Giles said.

Deloitte Access Economics forecasts the Territory’s economy to grow by an average of 4.2% per annum between 2014-15 and 2018-19 – the highest average annual growth forecast of all jurisdictions.

The Territory’s CPI is forecast to increase by an average of 2.4% pa over the next five years –below the national average of 2.5%.