Queensland’s Department of Environment and Heritage Protection’s baseline emissions projections show a 35% increase in greenhouse emissions to 2030, including a sharp rise between now and 2020, followed by a more gradual increase to 2030.

The department said the increases in baseline energy sector emissions were largely due to upstream LNG processing and the large electricity demand associated with gathering and transporting CSG to the processing facilities at Curtis Island, as well as a reduction in the supply of competitively-priced gas for electricity generation and the repeal of the Carbon Tax.

Energy sector emissions are projected to rise from 98.9 million tonnes of CO2-equivalent in 2013 to 135.4MMtCO2-e in 2030.

“Queensland was once a national leader in state-based pollution reduction measures, which saw our emissions decline from 2005 to 2013. But the downwards trend has since clearly reversed,” the department said in its report, Carbon pollution projections: Queensland’s baseline greenhouse gas emissions projections to 2030.

“If Queensland takes no new steps to reduce its carbon pollution, the baseline scenario projects emissions would rise by 35% by 2030 – at the very time emissions need to be reduced.”

The Australian government aims to reduce emissions by 26% to 28% on 2005 levels by 2030, but the report said that based on these projections Queensland’s emissions will increase 13% over the same period – or 34% to 2030 on 2000 levels.

“The Queensland government accepts the overwhelming scientific consensus on the causes and consequences of climate change,” the department said.

“Understanding the emissions generated is an important step towards developing a strategy for tackling carbon pollution in Queensland.”