According to the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2000, by 2020 consumption is projected to reach 127 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).
The forecast projects US economic growth to average 3% annually through 2020, and assumes growing competition in the electricity industry because of changes in the industry's financial structure, improvements in efficiency and operations, and a transition to full competitive pricing of electricity in states with specific deregulation plans.
While oil and gas prices are expected to increase from 1999 levels in 2020, expected coal prices decline from US$16.98 per ton to US$12.70 per ton. The expected price of a kilowatthour of electricity falls from 6.7c to 6.0c.
Energy consumption will increase with residential demand rising 1.2% per year, commercial demand 1.4% per year and industrial demand 1% per year. Gas consumption is expected to rise 2.3% annually, mainly attributed to an expected tripling of demand for electricity generation (excluding cogenerators) between 1999 and 2020. Projected electricity demand rises 1.8% per year, petroleum demand 1.4% per year, coal demand 1% per year, and renewable fuels demand (driven mainly by State mandates) 1.1% per year.
Electricity generated by natural gas will lift from 16% in 1999 to 36% in 2020, largely at the expense of coal which declines from 51% to 44%. Forecast nuclear generating capacity declines from 97 gigawatts to 72 gigawatts.
In other related news, EIA also released its monthly coal production statistics for November 2000. US coal production in November totaled 94 million short tons, 3% higher than in November 1999.
Coal production during the first 11 months of 2000 totaled 1.004 billion short tons, slightly higher than production during the first 11 months of 1999. Coal consumed by the electric power sector in September 2000 totaled 80 million short tons, 1% higher than the level in September 1999.
Electric power sector coal stocks were 109 million short tons at the end of September 2000, 18% lower than the level a year earlier. Coal exports in September 2000 totaled 4 million short tons, 13% lower than exports in September 1999. Coal imports in September 2000 totaled 1 million short tons, 16% higher than imports in September 1999.
