INTERNATIONAL COAL NEWS

Coal the most valuable Aussie export

COMMODITY exports will reach record levels in 2008 and 2009, with coal forecast to lead the pack ...

Kate Haycock

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The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said the total value of Australia’s mineral and energy exports would rise by 33% to $153 billion in 2008-09, following a rise of 7% to $115 billion for the current financial year.

The coal industry, meanwhile, is forecast to export around 240 million tonnes of thermal and metallurgical coal in the 2007-2008 financial year, bringing in export earnings of $22.4 billion.

Tonnages exported will rise to 336Mt by 2013, and earnings will increase to $33.3 billion.

Spot prices for the commodity should also remain high until 2013, ABARE said, given supply issues and capacity constraints dogging coal.

In the short term, however, supply issues will continue to drag on exports and earnings.

Australian mine output across all commodities will increase by 11% in 2007-2008 as new projects come online, but thermal coal exports will drop by 3.5% to 108Mt, although this will be offset by record high contract and spot prices.

Metallurgical coal exports will remain stable at 132Mt after flooding in the Bowen Basin earlier this year, but earnings will be reduced by 8% thanks to a stronger Australian dollar.

ABARE said Tuesday that the predicted growth in exports would most likely come towards the end of the forecast period as the industry struggles to meet demand and overcome supply bottlenecks.

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