Thanks to Debbie, Aurizon’s Goonyella rail system, a key piece of the Queensland coal infrastructure, will be blocked for about five weeks.   

Major Bowen Basin producers such as the BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance and Glencore have been unable to get their met coal to port despite their mines becoming operational soon after the cyclone. 

This has promoted Chinese buyers to looking at alternative suppliers, including from the US and New South Wales, and has sent the price of met coal up to US$300 per tonne.  

“Following the impact of Cyclone Debbie, enquiries for metallurgical coal have increased substantially,” Whitehaven said in a statement.

“Given existing committed sales volumes, we are expecting an increase in metallurgical coal sales in the final quarter of the year.”

According to Macquarie Wealth Management, NSW producer South32 is also in the box seat because of the impact of TC Debbie on Bowen Basin production levels.

“We note that a 10% move in coking coal prices translates to 6-9% upgrades to our forward earnings estimates for S32 and 9-10% for BHP, but only 1% for Rio Tinto,” Macquarie said.

“BHP and South32 have similar earnings leverage to coking coal, however, it is likely BHP would suffer a production hit from the cyclone.”