The Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union said while it was encouraging that the industry had exported $60.1 billion in 2016-17, it would be wrong to forecast endless growth.

 

"Coal use is growing in certain smaller Asian markets like Vietnam, but is declining in many parts of the world," it said.

 

"Australia has been growing its market share in an overall flat market, but that is not a situation that can continue indefinitely. Most forecasters expect thermal coal prices and revenues to decline - they mainly differ about the pace. 

 

"And although demand for metallurgical or coking coal for steelmaking has longer term prospects than thermal coal for power generation, it too is forecast to decline in price and revenue terms from current highs - at least in part because of higher rates of steel recycling."

 

Japan, has had to rely a bit more on Australian coal than expected after the shutdown of its nuclear power industry after the Fukushima disaster.

 

However, according to the CFMEU, it is seeking to limit that growth. 

 

"The biggest coal producer and consumer in the world, China, appears to be pulling the strings in the global thermal coal market to maintain the market price at a level that doesn't force Chinese producers out of business rapidly, but is still seeking to reduce coal consumption," the union warned. 

 

"That manipulated market price - about US$85 to $95 per tonne - suits Australian producers. But it is a highly vulnerable situation to be in."