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Highs and lows: The upside to the mining downturn

AMID the sorry news of job cuts, falling commodity prices and mothballed mines, could there be some upside to the industry downturn?

Charlotte Dudley
Highs and lows: The upside to the mining downturn

The mining boom witnessed a flurry of new listings, healthy share market gains and a surge across nearly every commodity group.

Of course, life through the boom was not all peaches and cream with employers battling to attract and retain skilled staff and then obliged to pay massive wages. Accommodation in many mining centres became difficult to secure while the cost of housing and many raw materials skyrocketed.

With the mining sector now losing much of its shine, industry commentators said the scene could be set for cost reductions, speedier approvals and a more favourable playing field for investors.

Fat Prophets analyst Gavin Wendt suggested tough times could push governments to provide greater incentives to miners and explorers.

“Generally if they’re smart, they’ll look at ways they can make life easier for resource companies,” he said.

“Things like expediting the process for licence approvals ... cutting through the red tape.”

The easing of the boom is also likely to result in employers being able to find – and keep – skilled workers while a reduction in mining salaries could also deliver business benefits.

Hays Resources national director Simon Winfield said while the volume of job vacancies had dropped, businesses were better placed to access skilled candidates and were less likely to have to pay such a premium.

“Clients have more choice now … we can go to the short list and give people the very best candidate rather than the situation before where candidates were so short, the quality was perhaps suffering,” he told MiningNews.net.

High staff turnover, a major problem for miners during the boom years, is also likely to reduce as workers opt for job security.

“In the permanent job market, people are tending to stick tight with where they’re at rather than stick their head above the parapet and see what else is out there, because they know they can’t move for another thirty grand or whatever, because that money’s not there anymore,” Winfield said.

In addition to a drop in labour costs, Wendt confirmed there was likely to be a reduction in the cost of some raw materials and noted that steel prices had already fallen.

With less competition, business could also stand to benefit from improved access to things such as drill rigs, tyres and assay services.

But it is not just corporate management who could experience some upside in the downturn.

As the boom wears off and investor interest wanes, local real estate agents in key Western Australian and Queensland mining centres have reported a drop in prices, good news for any would-be home buyers (provided, of course, they remained employed).

At the extreme end of the scale, Queensland real estate ethics advocate and former agent Neil Jenman has tipped house prices to fall up to 50% in some Bowen Basin coal towns.

The lower prices and increased supply have taken some of the pressure off the accommodation squeeze in some mining areas; however, in regions such as the Pilbara, rental demand remains steady and prices have not come down.

Despite the share market hammering, investors too could be poised to benefit from the downturn as the tougher market conditions weed out the less performing companies.

“The quality of the IPOs typically that listed on the ASX over the last couple of years hasn’t been fantastic,” Wendt told MNN.

“There are some exceptions to that but it’s fair to say that we’ve got 700-plus listed resource companies and realistically we should probably only have 200 or 300.”

As less prospective companies fell by the wayside, he said investors would be able to make their picks from a higher quality selection.

“You’d like to think that the rubbish is going to get sorted out, disappear, and the good quality companies will survive,” he said.

“Unfortunately, during the boom times you see a lot of other companies listing and sometimes it can be very difficult for investors to sort the wheat from the chaff.”

To make his point, Wendt looked to Warren Buffett to complete one oft-heard boom time quote.

“A rising tide lifts all boats … but it’s only when the tide goes out that you can see who’s been swimming naked.”

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