Confirmation that Waratah Coal is moving ahead with its plans to develop an $8.3 billion coal business centred on a series of mines in the Galilee Basin of Queensland came this week, in the form of a detailed environmental impact statement.
The Palmer cheer squad, who can’t get enough of the big man’s courage in challenging corporate and government opponents, loved the vast sweep of the plan with its six mines, 40 million tonne-a-year export target (and 100 million tonne-a-year stretch target), 485 kilometre rail line, and creation of 70,000 jobs over 30 years.
But deep down even the Palmer enthusiasts must wonder why everything about Waratah has to be larger than life, including the incredible rail movement prediction of 134 trains a day (5.5 every hour or one every 11 minutes, roughly) and yet another attempt to raise billions of dollars in Hong Kong.
Those two examples, the proposed train movement schedule and the Hong Kong capital raising, are two areas where The Hog fears that Palmer will have problems.
The Queensland government is already choking on the size of the Waratah plan with acting State Development Minister Rachel Nolan telling Brisbane media there is a need to “strike the right balance” with what Waratah wants and with what’s best for the state.
Her exact words, as quoted in the Courier Mail newspaper were: “It’s important that we strike the right balance between developing major projects such as this and minimising their impact on regional communities and the local environment.”
Nolan did not say she would oppose Waratah’s super-ambitious plans but she did show the two cards she was holding which could send Palmer back to the drawing board – community impact and environmental impact.
Opponents in regional communities and green groups will seize on the minister’s comments and run their anti-Waratah agenda accordingly.
In fact, the first “hero” for the anti-Waratah group has been attracting media attention with local landowner Paola Cassoni saying she will “fight to the end” in opposing the coal-mining plan, and while one woman might not stop a massive development she has chosen a suitably green cause to back up her opposition, one that might catch the ear of government.
Cassoni’s cause is the Brimblebox nature reserve which the Queensland government created about 10 years ago to offset land clearing in the area. “I simply say it is amazing that land can be set aside, and the same government takes it away,” she is quoted as saying.
No doubt some ministers in the Queensland government, who come from the opposite end of the political spectrum to Palmer, will be thinking along the same lines as Cassoni.
Environmental issues, busy train schedules and ambitious mining plans can be managed with adjustments to the design and rate of expansion, and there’s probably little doubt that Palmer’s management team has put forward its best (and biggest) case knowing that it will have to accept changes to accommodate critics.
But, long before Waratah Coal starts breaking ground at its first mine near the town of Alpha, there is the matter of funding, and this is where The Hog feels a little more confident in saying that Palmer deserves a bravery nomination for planning a fresh attempt at floating Waratah on the Hong Kong stock exchange.
By some counts this will be his fourth approach to the capital market, with three previous attempts shelved when either the market tanked, or the price on Waratah shares was seen as being too high, or Hong Kong investors said they preferred mining companies to be in production before providing capital.
Whatever the past reasons for hitting speed bumps, this time around Palmer is reported to have a $2.4 billion Hong Kong float in mind with The Hog assuming that part of the proceeds will be allocated to the Alpha mine plan and part to other mining projects.
That assumption is based on what is perhaps the most interesting aspect of the latest Waratah concept, a funding package which is reported to be 85% debt and 15% equity.
Other players in the mining business, and long-term observers such as The Hog, have all experienced a jaw-dropping moment when they see that 85% number in print, even if it is all expected to come from Chinese banks which Waratah believes will be keen to make the loans necessary to secure future coal supplies for the Middle Kingdom.
The reason Palmer’s critics struggle with the 85% is that even in the best of times in global financial markets a mining project can hope for a 70/30 split (70% debt and 30% equity), while during times like these, when banks are running scared, the split is more like 50/50.
Whatever happens now, as Palmer revitalises his Waratah coal ambition, will be fun to watch – but isn’t it always the case with Clive?
