UBS analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith said the firm was “still quite bearish” on coal.

“We emphasise that we could be under-estimating the degree of change if renewables accelerate faster than expected,” he said.

“In fact, our numbers show coal consumed by the power sector will decline by 22% by 2020 [versus 853 million tons in 2014]; and out to 2030, consumption could decline by 49% compared to 2014 levels.

“We estimate an aggressive decline in coal to 23% in 2025 and 18% by 2030 [versus 37% in 2014].”

Somewhat defying the anti-Obama mantra that has emanated from industry over the past year over his contentious Clean Power Plan, the IEEFA said this shift was driven by economics, not policy initiatives – “although the regulatory climate in the US is playing a big part”

Recovery?

The IEEFA was more philosophical on coal longer-term, saying the next round of stock and industry analysis coming out of Wall Street may well be a recovery story – “the new storyline for coal”

“At IEEFA, we’ve been talking about how the recent blizzard of bankruptcies and distressed sales will likely to lead to overvaluations and more problems down the road for overly optimistic coal producers,” the group’s director of finance Tom Sanzillo said.

“We see some emerging examples now in Consol Energy and Murray Energy, both having disclosed clear-cut problems with their newly tooled plans. We continue to watch simultaneously for signs of life and further deterioration.

“The number of bankruptcies across the industry now tops 40 since 2012, and more are likely.”

In the meantime, the markets are adjusting.

“The large-scale displacement of coal [it had 50% of electricity-generation market share in 2003] is taking place as other energy investments are moving forward and filling the energy and finance voids left by the diminishment of coal,” Sanzillo said.

He said the reality of energy markets today was that US coal prices were at unsustainably low levels, and there were not many buyers.

After all, Sanzillo said, other forms of energy were just as reliable, maybe more so, and other forms of energy were more abundant, including not just natural solar and wind energy too.

“That’s to say nothing of coal companies making questionable assertions to the Securities and Exchange Commission about their minable reserves,” he said.

“As price scenarios emerge more clearly and as industry cost cuts continue but prove to be insufficient, more and more coal becomes unmineable.”