Mining consultant HDR Salva recently revealed that Indonesia’s coal production and exports fell 11.7% and 11.2% respectively for the month of July.

“This brings year-to-date production and exports to 287 million tonnes and 239 million tonnes respectively, down 0.6% and 1.2%, while the annualised production run rate in July was also the lowest since August 2012,” Macquarie Private Wealth said in a commodities report.

“As highlighted by our Indonesian coal equities analyst Riaz Hyder, we think this is a reflection of margin pressure being experienced by Indonesian producers and is the first significant sign of supply curtailments in the seaborne market.”

The broker said production data by concession type and location in Indonesia seemed to support this thesis.

“Output from central contract of work first generation concessions, that is, the mature coal mines, is still up YTD, while declines have been recorded at other CCoW concessions and IUPs [mining permits],” MPW said.

“What is more, proportionally the largest declines in output have come from resource-rich but coal-quality-poor Sumatra.”

Meanwhile, leading coal producer China Shenhua Energy has raised its thermal coal prices by 5 yuan per tonne in September after increasing them 4 yuan per tonne in August.

“This price rise has once again been attributed to government calls for a stabilisation of the domestic market rather than any underlying tightness given continued weak consumption growth and excess inventories throughout the supply chain,” MPW said.

Thermal coal shortages at power stations across India are also improving the commodity’s pricing outlook.

Whitehaven Coal CEO Paul Flynn was feeling better about the prospects for coal, according to The Wall Street Journal this week.

“It’s been a very, very difficult environment but I see signs that the oversupply situation is tightening up now, which is good,” he told the newspaper.