Speaking to International Coal News, Queensland Resources Council CEO Michael Roche said the market would, sooner or later, realise the importance of southeast Asian demand for coal.
Roche said: “What we’re seeing from a whole range of forecasters – including the long-term projections from the International Energy Agency and mid-term forecasts from IHS McCloskey and HDR, who might all have their own specific numbers – that the story is very similar: Asian demand for coal, particularly for thermal coal, is on the rise year on year between now and 2020.
“People are eventually going to sit up and take notice of the fact that while China coal demand may well be peaking, it’s going to offset by the growth in places like India, and some of the smaller markets which, when you add them together, makes for a very big number.
“If you add Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, McCloskey says demand in thermal coal in those four markets will exceed 100 million tonnes, which is certainly double from today.
“So there are some other growth markets out there as well as the consensus that has emerged around the fact that India’s domestic coal industry can’t keep pace with the demand for thermal and coking coal.”
Indonesian demand was rising too. In its analysis of the country in March last year, the US Energy Information Administration said Indonesia's total primary energy consumption grew by 44% between 2002 and 2012.
The petroleum share, although decreasing, continues to account for the highest portion of Indonesia's energy mix at 36% in 2012. In the past decade, coal consumption nearly tripled and surpassed natural gas as the second most consumed fuel.
Indonesia's total energy demand is closely linked to the country's economic expansion. International Monetary Fund figures show that Indonesia sustained relatively strong economic performance throughout the global recession, with an average gross domestic product growth rate of just under 6% per year between 2008 and 2012.
However, in 2013, GDP growth fell below 6%. Overall, the energy sector – including electricity – constituted 15.6% of Indonesia's GDP in 2012 and has held roughly constant at this level since 2005. Net foreign direct investment more than doubled between 2008 and 2012 but shrank by roughly 15% in 2013.
