China slowdown on the cards: ANZ

WEAKER than expected industrial activity in China in May suggests the strong pickup in demand for many commodities so far this year may be coming to an end, according to the ANZ Bank.
China slowdown on the cards: ANZ China slowdown on the cards: ANZ China slowdown on the cards: ANZ China slowdown on the cards: ANZ China slowdown on the cards: ANZ


Lou Caruana

Market uncertainty around the Brexit vote also presents a key risk for commodities next week, it said.

“While the impact may be temporary, losses in commodities could be steep,” it said.

“This should keep commodity prices subdued in the short term. However, the still broadly

positive fundamentals and a more dovish Fed should keep the downside limited.”

After a strong start to the year, dark clouds are appearing on the horizon for commodity markets, according to ANZ.

“After stronger than expected growth in industrial activity in China earlier this year, various indicators have started to down back downwards as credit conditions tighten.

“At the same time, volatility is rising due to uncertainty around the upcoming Brexit vote in the UK. Without any overwhelming strength in fundamentals in many commodity markets, we expect these issues to weigh on prices in the short term.”

The slew of economic data releases over the past week has raised concerns around the longevity of the recent rally in commodity prices.

“The weakness in China’s financing numbers for May was notable,” it said. “Though loan growth was stronger than expected, total social financing was quite subdued. This highlights the potential poor economic prospects consistent with the fall in fixed asset investment data seen in May.”