Well, loved might be stretching the point, but there is no doubt that investors have a deep affection for coal, as do Asian consumers, and even sections of the news media in Europe have developed a fresh appreciation of coal, which is the biggest surprise of all.
The attraction of investors can be demonstrated in two ways. Firstly, there are the latest exploration statistics. Secondly, there is an “amusing”Hog special which compares the performance of two categories of energy-related companies on the Australia stock market.
The stats tell a story that Canberra will hate, especially as it is the source of the data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics last week in its quarterly survey of mineral exploration.
At the same time that the proposed new carbon tax was being introduced in Parliament the ABS bean-counters produced numbers which showed that coal came within a whisker of being the country’s number one exploration target in the three months to June 30.
Total outlays on the hunt for coal hit $A202.7 million in the June quarter, close to double the $109.6 million in the March quarter. In June, coal expenditure came close to matching the recent exploration leader, iron ore, which had $214.7 million invested in its search – with both coal and iron ore well ahead of third-placed gold at $178.2 million.
One quarter does not a trend make, which is why The Hog looked at the annual investment in different mineral targets, and while iron ore and gold were in front over the past three years there is a definite trend evident which is best illustrated by looking at the share of total outlays.
Three years ago, the percentage share of the big three mineral targets looked like this: iron ore 26.5% (of $2.22 billion), gold 19.7%, coal 13.4%. Last financial year the breakdown was iron ore 22.5% (of $2.95 billion), gold 22.6%, and coal 17.6% – making coal the fastest-growing exploration target which, in theory, is a pointer to future production rising faster than other minerals.
The “amusing”Hog special is a comparison of the share price movements of a basket of coal stocks with a basket of uranium stocks, perhaps a bit naughty statistically, but an interesting illustration of what’s happened to uranium, which was once a serious rival fuel to coal.
Since mid-March, when Japan was forced to shut much of its nuclear reactor fleet, and Germany boldly decreed that it would exit the nuclear industry, the collective price of a basket of seven uranium stocks has crashed 52%. Over the same time, the collective price of a basket of seven coal stocks has risen by 118%.
The doubling in value of the coal basket, and the halving in value of the uranium basket is probably not a surprise, because killing off the nuclear power industry in two of the world’s leading economies is a remarkable event that can only boost future coal sales – or risk a widespread shutdown of industry.
Japan’s new Prime Minister, Yoshihido Noda, has recognised the problem caused by the kneejerk nuclear shutdown decision, saying it simply could not be allowed to happen or the country would not recover.
Facing the reality of the energy needs of modern economies is what also appears to be happening in sections of the European news media with the opinion-leading Financial Times of London carrying an utterly astonishing commentary on how the world (other than Australia) is currently handling the climate change debate.
Given that coal has long been regarded as a prime cause of climate change, what the FT published is worth noting, especially as the key point is that Europe has stopped talking about climate change since the global financial crisis started to unfold in 2008.
Snippets from the opinion article written by Simon Kuper include: “Worries about climate probably peaked in 2007”.... “Nowadays few societies even pretend to be doing anything anymore” ... “when policies focussed on economic growth confront policies focussed on emissions reduction, it is economic growth that will win out every time” ... “Almost everyone has given up”
Meanwhile, in Australia where the clocks seem to run backward and the government believes water runs up hill, a lone fight against a global issue is being mounted – much to the amusement of every other country which wants to keep its factories working and lights on, and that means buying more Australian coal, which is why exploration for the stuff is accelerating.
