MARKETS

Hog sniffs out budget good news

FIRST, the good news. Yes, that’s right, <i>Hogsback</i> was able to find some this week amid the fallout from the federal government’s anti-business, anti-mining budget and the rolling crisis that is the slow death of the grand European experiment.

Tim Treadgold

Two of the world’s top commodity-trading firms have seen through the political froth and bubble enveloping much of the western world.

What they see is steady growth, even in some very surprising places.

Asia, naturally, is the engine room of commodity demand.

That aside, Glencore and Mitsubishi reported within a few days of each other that underlying sales of coal, metals and soft commodities remained robust.

At a time when prices on share markets had been tumbling because of uncertainties surrounding the future of Europe, the growth rate of China and the environmental pressures on coal, Glencore delivered one of the commodity world’s more surprising comments.

“The worldwide coal burn rate is at record levels, including Europe,” Glencore management said in its March quarter production report.

Normally a secretive business that says little about sales, profits and product demand, Glencore has become more open as it pushes ahead with a controversial plan to merge with its listed associate, Xstrata.

It is the need to maintain enthusiasm for the merger that some critics see as a reason for Glencore’s upbeat assessment of underlying commodity demand.

That assessment also included its views on coal, which also featured a forecast that US coal production would dive if natural gas prices in that country remained low.

Glencore is not alone.

Japan’s Mitsubishi echoes the central assessment of its European competitor – that the outlook for commodities is actually much better than is being seen in share prices.

In a bullish view of commodity demand, Mitsubishi expects “higher coal and steel sales as oil prices averaging $US120 a barrel drive record profits”

In its assessment of the year ahead, the Japanese trading house said there would be a recovery in commodity markets over the next 12 months thanks to strong underlying demand.

Glencore agrees.

“Overall Chinese demand continues to be healthy,” it said.

“Global inventories of commodities are generally low, both on exchanges and within supply chains, a sign of tightness in the physical market.”

It is possible the major trading divisions of both Glencore and Mitsubishi are operating in sweet spots of their own, immune in some way from the uncertainties reflected in share and foreign exchange markets.

That, however, seems unlikely because both companies trade across the commodity spectrum and are quick to pick up positive and negative signals.

What Glencore and Mitsubishi appear to be seeing are the first signs of a supply squeeze caused by European banks shrinking their commodity-lending businesses.

This could explain the apparent shortage of raw materials in supply chains.

The funding shortfall, which can be traced back to Europe’s never-ending financial crisis, may be having a surprise effect on commodity prices thanks to the cash shortage causing miners and commodity traders to liquidate stocks to fund their operations.

Whatever the reasons, there is a message in the Glencore and Mitsubishi view of the world which is quite different to that being reflected in the price of the big miners such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

Over the past few weeks, BHP and Rio have led a sharp pullback in mining company share prices caused by Europe’s financial troubles and compounded by the social welfare focus of this week’s Australian budget.

Rather than delivering a promised cut in the rate of company tax, the government is pushing ahead with its super-tax on coal and iron ore production and its carbon tax on everything.

Most of the proceeds from these imposts are being distributed in cash handouts to ease cost pressures on families.

Unpopular with business, the budget will shore up voter support for the government in its blue-collar heartland but do nothing to encourage investment, or job creation.

So, while there was no good news in this week’s budget for the mining industry, Hogsback was able to find some in the international commodity market.

If both Glencore and Mitsubishi see continued strength in demand and prices, it is likely the period of commodity price correction, through which we have been passing, is coming to an end, with higher prices on the horizon, if only to fill depleted supply-chain pipelines.

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