According to the ABC, Citi researcher Elaine Prior said even gassy mines in the Illawarra would pay between 60c and $2 per tonne of coal at a $20/t price for carbon, which would not significantly impact value.
But the ACA said Citi’s research was incomplete, patchy and based only on public information from BHP Billiton, Macarthur Coal, Centennial Coal, Rio Tinto and Wesfarmers.
“The ACIL Tasman independent study for the ACA, on the other hand, is based on 75 mines representing 85 per cent of Australia’s black coal production in 2007-08,” the industry group said.
ACIL’s research determined the scheme would trigger the early closure of 16 mines in New South Wales and Queensland and cost up to 9000 direct and indirect jobs.
“The ACIL Tasman study included very detailed and actual data provided by companies on a strictly confidential basis to the independent consultant. This included all direct emissions, transport costs, electricity costs and financial data on a mine-by-mine basis.
“That study also included projections for various types of export coal based on forecasts by ABARE and 13 investment banks, whereas the Citi report has only its own projection.”
Modelling by ACIL also accounted for permit costs, electricity prices and renewable energy targets, along with port and rail hikes from the scheme.
“The overall results from the ACIL Tasman study are consistent with economic modelling of the impact of the CPRS on coal mining by three other independent research organisations, including a detailed study by Access Economics for state and territory governments,” ACA said.
“ACIL Tasman did model the effects of CPRS’s treatment of coal on internal rates of return. It was found that changes to internal rates of return would range from reductions of about 0.75 percentage points to 15 percentage points and that this would significantly impact the economics of 16 mine operations.”
Another federal Senate showdown on the proposed scheme is expected in the week starting November 23.
The CPRS was shot down by a 12-seat Senate margin in August.
If the Rudd government’s CPRS, in its current form, is blocked again, the government will be able to call a double dissolution and therefore call an early federal election.