An analysis from Barry Rogliano Salles Dry Bulk newsletter China had almost doubled its output since 1998 and may exceed 200 million tonnes.

European Union production has remained consistently on 160 million tonnes per year, whilst reorganisation in the US steel industry has resulted in reduced global output now at 90 million tonnes, the same level as almost 10 years ago.

The Japanese market has regained momentum from a lack lustre position in the late 1990’s, now producing 100 million tonnes per year.

“For the first five months of 2003 China has reaped a 22% share of the world crude steel output, before Japan and the rest of Asia (Taiwan, Korea, India) with 21%, then comes the EU with 18%, the rest of Europe including CIS countries with 16% and at last North America with 14%,” Barry Rogliano Salles shipbrokers said.

“With a progression trend of 20% from January to May 2003 compared to 2002, China is again expected to see its share of the world total output to grow by the end of the year, far behind, CIS area production (particularly Russia

and Ukraine) has risen by 8%, while North America has recorded a not so bad 5.5% compared to a modest 2.4% for the EU.

“In the rest of the world, we find two major players; Brazil, with 30 million tonnes per year and a progression of around 8/9% and South Africa, with an output of 9 million tonnes per year also rising at 8/9% per year.”