For anyone unfamiliar with Jeremiah he is the dude sometimes referred to by Biblical scholars as “the weeping prophet” because he was (in his early years) a thoroughly miserable chap.

The Hog is not quite so miserable as Jeremiah but he does have a habit of asking mining-project promoters to “show me the money”, which, in a few examples has two prongs, they are:

• show me the capital to pay for the project
• show me the profits to keep it in business.

Neither of those questions is unfair, especially when seen through the eyes of a potential investor in a costly new mine such as the Adani Group’s Carmichael coal project in the Galilee Basin of central Queensland (not to be confused with the Galilee region of Israel where the original Jeremiah is said to have lived).

A few days ago Adani’s cheer squad was cock-a-hoop at the awarding of the final bit of government paperwork that will clear the way to start work on the $16.5 billion Carmichael mine, and theoretically see it grow into one of the world’s biggest coal projects, shipping around 60 million tonnes of coal a year to India and other Asian markets.

Given that it has taken more than three years for Adani to clear all the environmental hurdles erected in the way of Carmichael, and the irrational and biased opposition to the project by a global collective of green activists, the enthusiasm shown by the project’s backers is understandable – up to a point.

Now comes the reality check which The Hog suggests should be applied to all resource projects at a time of tight bank lending, limited interest from equity investors, and a coal price that is in the place that coal used to be stored – the cellar.

Adani admirers will have none of this. They say it is full steam ahead for their pet project, while also quietly saying that a final investment decision will not be made until early next year.

Perhaps by then the coal market will have turned, and capital markets will be more receptive to big new mines. Until then there are those tricky questions to consider, especially who has got $16.5 billion to spare for a mine that will find profits hard to earn while thermal coal is selling for $US80 a tonne, and less.

To be fair to Adani there is a need to finalise technical studies that demonstrate the feasibility of Carmichael, but as far as The Hog can see there are not yet any financial numbers in the public domain to show at what coal price the mine will be profitable.

Adani is not alone in what might be called premature celebrations. The same can be said of the excited commentary surrounding another energy-related project, the planned expansion by BHP Billiton or its Olympic Dam copper and uranium mine.

Once hailed as a project that would involve digging the world’s biggest hole, and as a world-beating source of both metals, the $30 billion proposal was shelved because governments took too long to issue approvals – which turned out to be a blessing in disguise because prices for copper and uranium tanked.

BHP Billiton shelved what might be called Plan A (the big dig) and is now talking about Plan B, the trial of a heap-leach process. This is a cut-price technique to replace expensive conventional mineral processing.

The new plan might, or might not, be a success but what amused The Hog was the unleashing in certain reports of the same sort of irrational exuberance that could be found in some comments about the Carmichael coal project.

If you only read the Australian Financial Review newspaper you would be excused for thinking Olympic Dam (B) is a certainty, given the headline: “BHP fires up Olympic Dam again”, and a secondary comment story headed: “For BHP boss it could be Eureka!”

If you only read The Australian newspaper there was a totally different spin, given the headline of: “Olympic Dam expansion years away, says BHP”, complete with prominence given to an escape clause in which the big miner said: “While the application is for a trial, a successful trial will not necessarily lead to a full scale heap leach project”

As an observer with a keen interest in the mining industry The Hog would like to see everyone succeed with every project.

But, at some point a reality check is needed and right now it is hard to see either Carmichael or Olympic Dam (B) moving far out of their analysis phase for some time.