However, whereas Asian demand was expected to prop up Australian LNG exports, the tepid uptake hasn’t provided the much-needed support to natural gas domestic end users here. A further weakening of the Asian market might provide the boost.
The Japan-Korea Market or the spot LNG price for May delivery slipped $0.20 to $US7.50/million British thermal unit last Friday.
While this is marginally higher than the record low of $6.70 reached in February, prices are well below the peak reached only 12 months ago in February 2014 of $20.50/MMBtu.
Analysts say some of the price slide stems from dwindling demand from key importers Korea and China, with both seeing lower than expected volumes in the first quarter of the year.
In fact, China’s import of piped gas grew 52% on year to a record 3.51 billion cubic metres in February and though its imports of LNG were higher as well, the growth in implied gas demand hasn’t met expectations.
A warmer than usual northern winter has capped demand as well.
From most accounts, LNG appears to be following the track of other commodities such as iron ore and coal, with a supply overhang looking increasingly likely.
For one, the LNG demand trajectory has made a break from past seasonal trends in the last 12-14 months with northern winter demand and the second quarter rally usually seen not materialising last year.
It has been the same this year.
Many argue at least some of the slide to be due to a collapse in crude oil prices seen in the last nine months.
But that is only part of the puzzle, with new supply expected to come online leading to a situation of oversupply and curbing demand.
Already, ExxonMobil’s 6.9 million tonne a year export terminal in Papua New Guinea came online late year, while one of the Queensland LNG project also started shipping late last year.
Going forward, another 48.5MMtpa of capacity that is currently in construction phase in the US will come online by 2018 with another 41MMtpa of capacity addition likely from three projects in Russia.
All this projects are already committed to and do not factor in those that will possibly get approval in Canada or closer home in East Africa.
Secondly, the China story appears to have run its course. Again, much like the country’s demand for other energy commodities, a cooling economy has capped near-term gas demand.
Its economic growth has slowed to mid- single digits compared to around 13.5% seen last year.
And LNG projects that relied on the Chinese demand will likely suffer.
In all this, of significance for domestic gas consumers in Australia is the possible net-backing of prices.
Saddled with multiple drilling moratoria across states and successful anti coal seam gas campaigns, domestic gas prices have risen sharply in the eastern seaboard.
A tepid Asian LNG market will only be net-positive for Australian end users.
