Australian earnings from energy and minerals exports are forecast to fall by 20% to around $A129 billion in 2009-2010, according to the latest figures released by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics.

For thermal coal, China is expected to play a similar role as this year with imports forecast to remain steady in 2010 at 80 million tonnes.

India is forecast to increase thermal coal imports by 11% to 50Mt in 2010 while traditional buyer Japan will increase marginally by 2% to 117Mt as its own economy recovers.

The Republic of Korea has increased it imports this year and is expected to climb further, growing 2% to 85Mt in 2010.

In the European Union, the shutdown of the German coal industry is expected to support imports in 2010, but high stocks in some countries and cheap natural gas could place downward pressure on import demand.

“Higher demand for electricity in the winter months, and increasing cost competitiveness of coal under the assumption of higher gas prices, is expected to lead to increasing demand for coal in the second half of 2010,” ABARE said.

Big coal exporter Colombia is expected to up the ante in 2010 after slipping 5% this year to 70Mt. In 2010 thermal coal exports should climb to 74Mt, underpinned by an expected recovery in coal import demand in the EU and the United States.

Expanded rail and port expansion at Richard’s Bay will see increased exports out of South Africa next year. Exports are forecast to increase by 3% to 65Mt, buoyed by a recovering Atlantic market and growth in Asia, particularly India.

Indonesia’s exports are forecast to rise a further 6% to 210Mt in 2010 while Russia will also increase 4% to 94Mt as it caters to Europe and China.

In 2008-09, Australia’s thermal coal production is estimated to have increased by 10% to 20Mt, helped along by mine expansions.

This trend is expected to continue into 2010 with the completion of Moolarben, Narrabri and Blakefield South, which will contribute to a forecast production increase of 4% to 213Mt in 2009-2010.

Australia’s thermal coal exports are forecast to increase by 3% to 141Mt, underpinned by higher production and new export infrastructure capacity.

Australian export values in 2009-2010 are forecast to decline by 40% to $10.8 billion, reflecting the 44% decrease in contract price for the 2009 Japanese financial year.

For coking coal, the improved economic outlook for major import markets and continued strong demand from China are forecast to result in world metallurgical coal trade increasing by 8% to 232Mt.

China’s imports of metallurgical coal are forecast to be around 27Mt in 2010.

Australian exporters have captured a significant share of China’s imports, accounting for around 70% in the first three quarters of 2009, up from a 20% share in 2008.

In 2010, imports of metallurgical coal are forecast to increase 16% in the EU, rise 6% in Japan and jump 16% in the Republic of Korea.

ABARE said despite these forecast significant increases, the total imports by these three major consumers will remain 10% below that achieved in 2008.

As demand increases, a number of producers with relatively high costs are expected to increase production.

Total exports from North America are forecast to increase by 16% to 58Mt while metallurgical coal exports will rise 17% to 34Mt.

In 2010 Canadian exports of metallurgical coal are forecast to jump 14% to 24Mt.

Australian export earnings from metallurgical coal are forecast to decline by 39% to $22 billion in 2009-2010, despite export volumes being forecast to increase by 21%.

Lower contract prices and the assumed higher value of the Australian dollar are the major contributing factors to this forecast decline in export earnings, ABARE said.